Get Enough Foreign Aid to Defeat COVID-19 Completely and Recover US Economy
Author: Sunny Lives
In Order to Defeat COVID-19 Completely and Promote US Economy to Achieve V-shaped Recovery, It is Necessary to Get Enough Foreign Aid.
In this paper the author observed the epidemic situation through data and discussed the advantages and disadvantages of isolation measures. The United States has assisted many countries in history, now those countries should send medical teams to assist the US which should also enact relevant laws to facilitate the medical aid teams to work in the United States. The income of receiving medical assistance is far greater than the expenditure, and a medical assistance needs to reach a certain scale to be effective. The order of assistance should be properly arranged. Coronavirus (COVID-19) testing (which detects SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, mainly refers to the detection of viral nucleic acid, the same below) is helpful to accurately control the epidemic situation and realize economic V-shaped recovery. Various channels to seek aid should be used as quickly as possible. People hope it can to be sponsored by competent enthusiasts.
COVID-19, medical aid, coronavirus testing, economic recovery
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic in the United States showed an explosive growth in March and relieved between April and May. However, it became severe again from the end of June to July.
From mid March to April, US economy experienced a sharp recession and the unemployment rate soared. During May and June, the economic and employment situation rebounded to a certain extent. In July, the economic and employment situation had a downward trend.
1. International Comparison and development of epidemic situation
1.1. International Comparison COVID-19 epidemic
This year, COVID-19 epidemic has affected almost all countries in the world. Table 1 lists the July data for several major countries.
Table 1. comparison of COVID-19 in several major countries in July
|Population (2019)(millions)||The average number of new cases confirmed per day in July (unit: person)||The proportion of new cases confirmed per day in July in the total population (in parts per million)|
Data of COVID-19 Epidemic from the Internet, and obtained by the author’s calculation. Population data from the Internet.
It can be seen from column D of table 1, the proportion of new cases confirmed per day in July in the total population was the highest in the US and Brazil, the lowest in China, the highest was more than 2800 times the lowest. In July, among these countries, the US (192.1 parts per million) and Brazil (189.9 parts per million) had the most severe COVID-19 epidemic, followed by France(10.07 parts per million), Germany (5.72 parts per million), and Japan (4.50 parts per million), China (0.067 parts per million) were the least affected.
1.2. Development and changes of epidemic situation in the US in recent months
Table 2. COVID-19 monthly changes in the US
|Monthly average number of new cases confirmed per day (unit: person)||Monthly average number of new cured cases per day (unit: person)||Monthly average number of new deaths per day (unit: person)||Probability of death (per cent)|
Data of COVID-19 Epidemic from the Internet, and obtained by the author’s calculation.
It can be seen from table 2 that the epidemic situation in the US deteriorated sharply from March to April, relieved in May, aggravated in June, and grew explosively again in July. From March to July, the average number of new cured cases per day increased gradually. The average number of new deaths per day peaked in April, then fell month by month, but rebounded slightly in July. According to the data of column E, the probability of death after infection is decreasing, among which May and June decrease the fastest.
The reason for the declining probability of death may be due to the improvement of epidemic prevention and treatment level, the rise of temperature in summer and the enhancement of human resistance and the decrease of virus activity, the continuous variation of the virus making it more infectious and less virulent, and the rate of increase in incidence rate of robust and strong youth being faster than that of physically weakened elderly, but young people less severe after infection.
2. Advantages and disadvantages of simple isolation measures
The widespread implementation of home isolation measures after mid March is very beneficial to epidemic prevention and control. The number of new cases confirmed in May is lower than that in April; the number of new death cases and the probability of death in May and June are lower than those in April and May respectively, which are evidence of the isolation effect.
However, the outbreak of the epidemic and the implementation of home isolation measures have caused a major blow to commodity trade, transportation, tourism, catering, entertainment and other industries, resulting in serious unemployment and social unrest. US economy (GDP) shrunk at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 32.9% during the second quarter of 2020. Or the isolated second quarter GDP (not annualized) contracted by 9.5%, GDP lost about $500 billion in the isolated second quarter.
Some people compare the severity of this year’s epidemic on economy and trade to the worst economic recession since the Great Depression in 1929; others compare it to suffering from the blow of World War.
3. Historically, the US has provided a lot of assistance to many countries
When it comes to World War, people naturally think of the Second World War in the 1940s.
During the World War II, the US provided material assistance to many countries through the Lend-Lease Act, and provided them with food, military materials, weapons and equipment that they needed urgently. The value of goods and materials delivered to some countries are: 31.4 billion US dollars to Britain, 11 billion US dollars to the Soviet Union, 3.2 billion US dollars to France, and 1.6 billion US dollars to China.
After World War II, through the Marshall Plan, the US provided 3.3 billion US dollars to Britain, 2.3 billion US dollars to France, 1.4 billion US dollars to Germany, 1.2 billion US dollars to Italy and Trieste, and 1.1 billion US dollars to Netherlands, to help Western Europe realize economic recovery.
From June 1950 to 1955, the US ordered goods and services from Japan, making Japan’s accumulated income of 3.5 billion US dollars from “special needs”, which promoted Japan’s economic recovery.
Later, the economic rise of the “four little dragons” in Asia, such as Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan, as well as the economic rise of China Mainland, had a lot to do with the opening of US market to them and US investment and technical support.
The American people, for the victory of the Second World War, as well as for the post-war economic recovery and development of many countries, provided a lot of assistance, help, and made great contributions.
4. The principle of feedback should not be forgotten
Now, the Epidemic is raging in the United States, and US economy has suffered a major blow.
It is hoped that countries that have received US aid in history will lend a helping hand to the US in overcoming the epidemic and realizing economic recovery as quickly as possible.
At present, the epidemic situation in Western European countries such as Germany, France, Britain and other East Asian countries, such as China, Japan and South Korea, has been obviously under control, and the economy, trade and employment have also been restored to varying degrees. It is hoped that these countries will help the US overcome the epidemic and jointly achieve economic and trade recovery.
A friend in need is a friend indeed.
In difficult times, it is the true friends of the United States that can offer great help to the United States.
5. Sending medical teams to aid the US
These countries should send medical teams to help the US beat COVID-19. The most effective way of helping American people is to send medical, testing teams and necessary materials to the US to provide services for them.
5.1. The following types of personnel shall be dispatched and the team shall be established by itself:
5.1.1. Engaged in COVID-19 and complications treatment, nucleic acid screening test of doctors, nurses, medical technical examination and other professional and technical personnel;
5.1.2. Environmental disinfection personnel;
5.1.3. Epidemiological investigators;
5.1.4. Other auxiliary personnel.
5.2. The medical aid team shall bring the following items by themselves or deliver them separately:
5.2.1. Personal protective equipment and articles;
5.2.2. Drugs, reagents, consumables, etc;
5.2.3. Portable medical instruments and equipment, etc;
5.2.4. Daily necessities with national characteristics, including equipment, supplies and materials for making ethnic characteristic diet;
5.2.5. Other necessary items.
6. The US should introduce a bill to facilitate the work of aid medical teams
The Federal Parliament and state legislature should introduce a bill that stipulates that during the prevalence of COVID-19 those foreign medical teams who assist the US can continue to use the medical means, drugs, medical regulations, standards and norms that they are familiar with in their home country, and provide medical services for the residents of the US to coronavirus testing, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 and its complications. In case of medical disputes, the law of the home country of the medical aid team should be applied, not the law of the United States.
On the contrary, if these foreign medical teams are required to unify the medical regulations, standards and norms applicable to the United States, these medical and technical personnel who come to the aid have to first learn and be familiar with the relevant regulations, standards and norms of the United States. This will take a long time. By the time they get familiar with these regulations in the United States, the epidemic is likely to be delayed more seriously, or more patients have died, and US economy will suffer more losses.
7. The scale and intensity of aid that should or may be achieved
After consulting the data and calculating the trend, the author estimates that the coronavirus testing capacity of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, China, Japan and South Korea, if a large amount of aid is provided to the United States, and the United States’ own detection capability is included, 60 million person times can be detected in the US in the first month after receiving assistance; In the second month, 100 million person times can be detected; in the third month, 170 million person times can be detected. In three months, 330 million person times can be tested, which is equivalent to one coronavirus test per person in the United States.
At the same time, every infected person detected should be treated properly.
8. Priority of receiving assistance
The working order of coronavirus testing and treatment service teams in different parts of the US may be arranged as follows:
First of all, those States, counties or cities that actively strive for foreign aid and have done well in supporting preparations can receive assistance in advance.
Secondly, the first stop for foreigners to enter the United States, or the last stop before Americans go abroad, that is, the cities where the international air ports, coastal (or along the lake, Riverside) ports, and land ports are located in the United States, carry out full coronavirus testing, and treat the infected persons in hospital or isolate them to avoid the spread of the epidemic.
After this step is completed, the US will be able to carry out normal trade in personnel and goods with those countries in the world whose epidemic situation has been controlled and the economy has been restarted. As a result, those related industries in the US that rely on international exchanges will be the first to recover.
Third, the aid medical teams enter the American inland cities for coronavirus testing, hospitalization or isolation of infected persons.
After the completion of this step, the economy and social activities in various fields in the US will recover on a solid foundation and will no longer experience the second or third bottoming out.
9. Cost of nucleic acid testing
At present, in some countries, the cost of a nucleic acid test can be as low as $10 to $20 by July.
Considering the cost of customs duties, freight, demolition and installation of facilities, travel expenses, personnel placement, the rising cost of living in the United States, as well as other expenses, medical testing teams from these countries such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, China, Japan and South Korea can conduct a nucleic acid test for residents in the United States. It is feasible to control the cost within 50 to 100 dollars per person time.
According to the population of 330 million in the United States, it is feasible to control the total cost of nucleic acid testing within 30 billion US dollars for all people in the United States, that is one nucleic acid test per person in the United States.
10. Input output ratio analysis
Within COVID-19 epidemic increasing explosively, the US was forced to stop production and unemployment rate soared. The average daily economic loss in the US in the second quarter exceeded $5 billion. The annual economic losses of the US is estimated to exceed $1 trillion in 2020, because of COVID-19.
With the expenditure of 30 billion US dollars for coronavirus testing, the input-output ratio is still very considerable to avoid hundreds of billions of dollars of losses caused by the second and third outbreak of the epidemic which leading to the second and third economic bottoming out.
11. Accurate control of epidemic situation, economic V-shaped recovery and coronavirus testing
Why is it that the economy of countries ravaged by the novel coronavirus has been seriously damaged and unemployment is serious? Because those who are healthy, not infected by the virus, and not infectious, are also like those infected by the virus, they are isolated and have lost the opportunity of normal work, life and consumption. Therefore, the economic recession and unemployment are serious.
If we can distinguish the infectious people from the non infectious people, let the non infectious people work, live and consume normally, isolate all the infectious people and give them treatment, we can achieve accurate control of the epidemic situation, and the economy can recover quickly.
The way to distinguish the two types of people is to do a coronavirus test on all the people in a region in the shortest time. For example, do a coronavirus test for all people in a city or a state, or a coronavirus test for all people in the United States.
Without coronavirus testing, if you want to control the epidemic situation, you have to isolate all people (of course, those who are not infectious are also isolated), and the result is economic recession; to avoid economic recession, the vast majority of people, even all people, have to go back to work, have to be exposed to a wide range of people (infectious people also participate in it). As a result, the virus spreads rapidly from person to person, and the epidemic situation worsens again. The two situations alternate and become a vicious circle.
Not only the United States, but in fact all countries in the world with increasingly serious epidemic situation and deep economic recession have entered this vicious circle.
The key to break this vicious circle is to quickly detect nucleic acid for all people in the designated area.
Overall, in the author’s opinion, as long as getting enough foreign aid, the new confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US can drop from 60,000 cases a day to 6,000 cases, then to 600 cases a day, and finally to less than 60 cases a day. At that time, it will also enable the US economy to achieve a V-shaped recovery as quickly as possible.
12. Trend of COVID-19 epidemic after receiving enough aid
From the date of adequate assistance, the number of new confirmed cases per day in a city or a state increases rapidly, peaking in the first week, and then gradually decreasing. During this period, it experienced several weak rebounds, and finally achieved the ideal result of zero new confirmed cases per day. It’s been three weeks.
The number of new cured cases per day reached the peak after 4 weeks, and then decreased in waves. 9 weeks or 9 weeks later, the last patient was cured and discharged.
The conclusion is that when a city or a state receives enough aid, it will take a little more than two months to completely defeat the coronavirus and end this round of epidemic.
13. All kinds of channels should be used to call on the countries concerned to provide assistance to the US
The federal, state, county, and city governments of the United States, as well as all sectors of society, relevant institutions, and industry associations, should use the corresponding channels separately to communicate with those countries that have received US aid in history and are now out of the quagmire of the epidemic, to call on them to provide assistance to the US against COVID-19.
Here are the names of some organizations:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)
National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases(NIAID)
American Hospital Association(AHA)
American Medical Association(AMA)
American College of Physicians(ACP)
The American Health Care Association and National Center for Assisted Living (AHCA/NCAL)
Airlines for America(A4A)
American Association of Port Authorities(AAPA)
American Public Transportation Association(APTA)
National Retail Federation(NRF)
US Travel Association
American Hotel & Lodging Association(AH&LA)
And more institutions and associations.
It is hoped that the organizations or institutions listed, as well as many others that have not been listed, should act and voice and call on relevant countries to assist the United States.
14. Hope to be sponsored by competent enthusiasts
People hope that some competent enthusiasts can take the lead and provide some start-up funds to help the county, city and even the state where you are located to carry out coronavirus testing for local residents, hospitalize all patients and isolate all infected people, so as to defeat COVID-19 as quickly as possible and realize the local economic recovery.
Here are some names:
Bill and Melinda Gates
Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan
Jim and Marilyn Simons
Gordon and Betty Moore
John and Laura Arnold
Steve and Connie Ballmer
Dustin Moskovitz and Cari Tuna
Lynn and Stacy Schusterman
T. Denny Sanford
Eli and Edythe Broad
Michael and Susan Dell
Bernard and Billi Marcus
It is hoped that the listed individuals or organizations, as well as more and unlisted people, can take action and make efforts to completely defeat COVID-19.
August 6, 2020
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